Mizzou bracketology: Latest March Madness seeding projections for the Tigers
Missouri men's basketball will learn its spot in the 68-team NCAA Tournament field at about 5 p.m. Sunday, marking the 30th time in program history that MU will make the Big Dance.
The Tigers don't have as much momentum entering March Madness as they did, say, a few weeks ago — but getting one win out of the Southeastern Conference Tournament gave MU a much-needed confidence boost.
Here are the latest projections from around the bracketology world for what Mizzou's seed will be, who the Tigers will face and where they'll begin NCAA Tournament play next week:
1:00 p.m. Sunday: Missouri is the second-best , a website that weighs more than 100 projected brackets to calculate a consensus idea of how the real thing will come together. The Tigers have an average seed there of 6.78, and are listed somewhere between a No. 5 and No. 8 seed on every tracked projection — but most, expectedly, have them at a No. 6 or No. 7. MU's average seed regressed between Saturday and Sunday.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Mizzou as , matching MU up with No. 10 seed West Virginia of the Big 12. In Lunardi's projection, the winner of that game would get No. 2 seed Michigan State (the likely pick) or No. 15 seed Bryant, with the first weekend taking place in Cleveland, Ohio.
CBS' Jerry Palm is of a similar mind. He also has Missouri as , albeit facing No. 10 seed Utah State in an exact rematch, down to the seeding, of a 2023 NCAA Tournament game. His bracket would also have the winner of that game taking on Michigan State, with Norfolk State — uh oh — as the No. 15 seed in that corner of the bracket.
Hoff's view: MU entered the SEC Tournament with a No. 7 seed landing spot looking likely, and unfortunately for the Tigers, the teams ahead of them in the race for a No. 6 seed – Louisville, Illinois, UCLA and Brigham Young — did enough in their conference tournaments to keep Mizzou from gaining any significant ground.
What could help Mizzou is something that will be a broader trend to watch on Selection Sunday: How much of a boost will the SEC get? The league is already on track to get 13, if not 14, of its teams into the field. All year, we (media, yes, but coaches and fans too) have been praising this season's SEC as one of the best basketball conferences ever assembled. That shows in how many Quad 1 and 2 games its teams wound up playing.
So whose best eight teams should be seeded higher: the Big Ten or the SEC? Whether Mizzou comes in at a No. 6 or No. 7 seed could be what determines that. The Tigers don't have a bad loss on their resume, and have three top-five wins — but a poor run of form recently. All of that could factor into the selection committee's decision.
I lean toward Missouri being a No. 6 seed because of the SEC strength factor, though I'm not sure how much of a determinant that will be.
Mizzou hoops enters Selection Sunday as projected NCAA Tournament team
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NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Now, they wait.
No. 21 Missouri men’s basketball’s NCAA Tournament resume is complete, whether the Tigers want it to be or not. They’ve exhausted their supply of available games to make the case to the tournament’s selection committee, so Mizzou now will join 67 other programs in hearing its name called during Sunday’s selection show.
MU will be spared at least one type of suspense in that it knows it’s a tournament team, having unofficially locked up the bid a few weeks ago. There were more losses than anticipated in those final few weeks of the regular season, but at 22-11 overall and 11-9 in Southeastern Conference play, Missouri will make the 68-team field.
“It’s an honor just to get your name called, wherever it might be, whatever level you’re on,” guard Marques Warrick said after Friday’s SEC Tournament loss to Florida. “We’re ready. We’re not gonna take it for granted. We’re gonna put in some work leading up to the game.”
Missouri guard Marques Warrick, right, drives against Mississippi State guard Josh Hubbard during the first half in the second round of the Southeastern Conference tournament Thursday, March 13, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn.
Wade Payne, Associated Press
What’s at stake Sunday — or really just what’s up in the air — is what seed Mizzou will wind up receiving from the committee. The Tigers have slipped from potential top-four seed to hovering between No. 6 seed and No. 7 seed territory, depending on the taste of the bracket predictor.
Was an SEC Tournament run that saw MU beat Mississippi State but wind up losing by double digits to a Final Four-caliber Florida team enough to boost Missouri into 6-seed land? Will the weight of having a winning record in the SEC — which will likely send 13, if not 14, of its 16 teams to the Big Dance — make a difference?
To its credit, Mizzou has not lost a game that doesn’t wind up a Quad 1 result in the NCAA’s net rankings, which are the biggest games. But the Tigers are 7-11 in those games and 3-7 in road matchups. There are strengths and weaknesses alike on their resume.
It’s worth wondering how much the seeding designation will matter — and it might.
Securing a No. 6 seed would pair MU with a No. 11 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, some of which have to play their way into the field early next week. That could be the likes of Indiana or San Diego State — or a white-hot Drake, fresh off its Missouri Valley Conference title.
A No. 3 seed — old Big 12 pals Iowa State and Texas Tech, perhaps — would await in the second round, and it’s that team whose location would dictate where the Tigers’ first weekend takes place. That could be somewhere relatively easy for Mizzou fans to get to, like Wichita, Kansas, or somewhere that isn’t, like Seattle or Providence, Rhode Island.
In a vacuum, that path is easier than what would come out of MU settling into the bracket as a No. 7 seed. The first-round matchup in that case would come against a No. 10 seed, like Baylor, which still has quality pieces. Then, in the second round, a No. 2 seed awaits.
Michigan State and St. John’s would be the likely opponents then, and it’s a tall task to get past Tom Izzo or Rick Pitino for a second weekend of March Madness.
Missouri's Tamar Bates, left, drives against Florida's Alex Condon in a Southeastern Conference tournament game Florida won 95-81 on Friday, March 14, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn.
Wade Payne, Associated Press
In the No. 7 seed scenario, Missouri could be heading to Cleveland, Ohio, or Milwaukee, Wisconsin if in the same bracket arm as Michigan State, or Providence if it’s St. John’s — or elsewhere, if there’s some shakeup in how the committee wants to organize the top seeds.
Not that the Tigers, who despite snapping a three-game losing streak this week have still lost five of their last seven games, can spend their Sunday thinking solely about the second round.
“You cannot underestimate your first opponent, and we’re not going to underestimate anyone,” coach Dennis Gates said. “We respect the tournament, and we’ll respect who’s on our bracket.”
Mizzou will watch Sunday’s 5 p.m. selection show together to find out who it plays. The team has been adamant, from the start of the season, that it has the talent to play in the Final Four — held this year in San Antonio, Texas.
But again, that’s down the road a bit. Immediately after the show, MU will be “watching film and making sure everybody’s head is on,” point guard Tony Perkins said.
“For the seniors, it’s our last one,” he said. “For the freshmen, it’s mostly like, ‘Hey, when your numbers get called, just be ready because shoot, we’re trying to make it somewhere.’ I would hope the freshmen do as well, because, with the three years for them left, you don’t know if you’re getting this far again.”
It’ll be a different kind of preparation for a program that since the start of January has been embroiled in playing the other 15 teams inside the nation’s best basketball conference this year.
“It’ll be a different feel, different vibe instead of going against SEC teams,” guard Caleb Grill said. “And I think that’s important for us because it’s really hard. We played 20 straight games against SEC opponents. We’ve just been banging on each other, beating up each other.”
Mostly honored to make the NCAA Tournament field, Missouri won’t be sweating its seeding all that much.
Whom it faces each round is more important if it wants to get to the Final Four. The number next to its name counts for less than each game the Tigers can win.
“The tournament is about matchups,” Gates said. “It’s about paths.”
Did Mizzou get what it needed out of the SEC Tournament? 'Yes but no.'
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NASHVILLE, Tenn. — In terms of predictions and seeding, it was the likely outcome. In terms of coaching decisions, it was the sacrificial outcome for the preservation of a bigger dance yet to come. In terms of performance, it was the fair outcome.
The Gators put 10 points on the board before Mizzou (22-10, 11-9 SEC) could even squeeze a shot off, then used that lead as leverage to keep MU at arm’s length the rest of the way. Missouri — playing without leading scorer Mark Mitchell, who was held out as a precaution after suffering a right knee injury Thursday — looked lively in the second half but faded in the final minutes en route to a 95-81 loss and tournament elimination.
“Honestly, once they got that 10-0 run, it just kept going and kept going,” point guard Tony Perkins said. “We cut it down. Once we cut it down, they would come up with a shot.”
That about sums it up.
Maybe there’s a lesson in the result — beyond the reality that Florida looks like a team prepared to win so much in March that it plays in April, too.
“We’ve got to punch first,” forward Trent Pierce said. “We can’t let a team come out there and we can’t get in that deficit like that. That really hurt us.”
But this was Missouri’s last loss that can count as any sort of lesson. The next one, which will come in the NCAA Tournament, will mark the end of the season.
The Tigers are seemingly in a better spot to begin the Big Dance than they were upon arrival in Nashville, when they checked a three-game losing streak with their luggage. Mizzou took care of business to grind out a necessary win over 10th-seeded Mississippi State on Thursday.
With the losing skid snapped and the recipe for victory back within MU’s hand, coach Dennis Gates seemed to tap the brakes slightly just before tipoff on Friday.
After Mitchell missed the second half of the win over Mississippi State with a knee injury, Gates held his star forward and offensive focal point out of the next game, too.
Mitchell wanted to play — and could have. Gates thought preservation for the start of the NCAA Tournament next week was more valuable.
“I’m not afraid to make the decision that I need to make for the safety of our student-athletes,” Gates said.
Given that the finish to Mizzou’s SEC Tournament had so much to do with what’s still to come, it seems that this stage of the postseason was not some self-contained quest for a conference title. Sandwiched between the three losses that closed out the regular season and the spectacle of March Madness to come next week, there’s critical context needed when evaluating MU’s performance in the SEC Tournament.
It boils down, really, to this: Did Missouri get what it needed out of the tournament?
Asking that question around the Tigers’ locker room Friday night solicited varying perspectives.
“No,” Pierce said confidently. “Our goal was to win the whole thing. We have the talent to win the whole thing.”
“I feel like it was something left on the table,” Perkins said. “When you’re a team and you went through the kind of season we did this year, you always want to be the team on top.”
Other players had a more positive view.
“It’s good to come to the SEC Tournament and get a win against a good team, Mississippi State,” guard Marques Warrick said. “… We just needed to get our groove back, get a win on the board. We definitely feel better than when we came in. We’re all looking to build on that in the NCAA Tournament.”
“We got most of what we need,” forward Jacob Crews said. “Obviously, we needed that championship because that’s everybody’s goal at the end of the day. But as far as our lessons learned and understanding what we need to do to go forward, absolutely: I think we’re definitely going to go in (to the NCAA Tournament) rolling.”
Then there was nuance — which has come with MU’s recent skid, too.
“Yes,” guard Caleb Grill said when asked, before pausing. “But no. I mean, we came here to win the thing, but we also wanted to get back to playing the way that we have been — and I feel like we did do that. It’s a 50-50 thing. But no moral victories. We don’t believe in that. I don’t believe in that.”
Presented with the question at his postgame news conference, Gates needed a few seconds to chew it over in his mind before answering.
“Did we get what we needed to?” he said, reciting back the Post-Dispatch’s line of questioning. “We did not get the trophy. We don’t get the opportunity to raise a banner. Our season 3A (the team’s way of referring to the conference tournament) ends early. We wanted to be here, playing on Sunday, and we’re not. So we did not accomplish a goal. But as it relates to the silver lining, we’ll see what it does. But I do know we were able to win a game (Thursday) against a tough, NCAA Tournament team, and today we played a game without an all-conference player (Mitchell). I thought we did pretty well.”
He brought up performances he liked from depth players like Aidan Shaw and core players like Perkins and guard Tamar Bates. Gates seemed pleased with how the Tigers handled a neutral-site environment, which is all that’s on the docket the rest of the way.
And then he brought up the reality of that question, which is that there isn’t a correct answer — because it’s hard for Missouri to know.
“We’ll be able to answer that question when our season is over,” Gates said. “And hopefully, it’s not over anytime soon.”
Photos: No. 21 Mizzou men's basketball falls in SEC Tournament quarterfinals to Florida
The Missouri bench watches play against Florida during the second half of a game in the quarterfinal round of the Southeastern Conference tournament Friday, March 14, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn.
George Walker IV, Associated Press
Missouri's Tamar Bates, left, drives against Florida's Alex Condon in a Southeastern Conference tournament game Florida won 95-81 on Friday, March 14, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn.
Wade Payne, Associated Press
Missouri’s Tamar Bates, left, and Jacob Crews, right, and Florida guard Alijah Martin look for a rebound during the first half of a quarterfinal game of the Southeastern Conference tournament on Friday in Nashville, Tenn.
In this episode of the Eye on the Tigers Podcast, Post-Dispatch beat writer Eli Hoff sets the stage for Mizzou's entrance into the SEC Tournament. He outlines the three best and three worst things that could happen in Nashville, ranging from the Tigers getting their confidence back to being stuck as a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Eli shares notes and observations from spring football practices, then offers his takeaways on the future of Missouri's women's basketball program.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Down its leading scorer and battling one of the nation's hottest teams, Missouri men's basketball bowed out of the Southeastern Conference Tournament with a quarterfinal loss to Florida.
The No. 7 seed Tigers fell behind the No. 2 seed Gators immediately, making the second half competitive until they were buried by a late Florida flurry to fall 95-81.
Mizzou power forward Mark Mitchell did not play, a precautionary absence after hurting his right knee in MU's previous tournament game. Short on manpower and unable to find the offensive juice to compete with UF's recent run of high-octane play, the Tigers were no match.
Four Missouri guards scored in double figures: Tamar Bates (16 points), Anthony Robinson II (13), Tony Perkins (13) and Caleb Grill (11).
Guard Walter Clayton Jr. scored 18 points to lead the Gators. Four UF players scored 16 or more points.
Florida opened the game by scoring 10 points before the Tigers even attempted a shot, thanks to an early flagrant foul against MU and a turnover. A 9-0 run triggered by freshman reserves T.O. Barrett and Peyton Marshall checking into the game cut the Gators' lead to four points, but they swiftly rebuilt a double-digit lead.
UF led 50-37 at halftime, marking just the third time this season that Missouri conceded 50 or more points in the first half.
Clayton left the game with about 14 minutes left, holding his hamstring as he limped off the floor. That aligned with a Mizzou run that saw Robinson make a floater through contact to cut the UF lead to four points.
Even without their star, the Gators staved off the comeback bid. Clayton returned to the action after four minutes of game time. One minute after he returned, a transition alley-oop put Florida back up by double digits — leading 74-64 with 9:01 to play.
Not long after, Florida fans were gator-chomping in the Bridgestone Arena stands.
Takeaways
Losing to Florida, which is on course to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament next week, is unlikely to dent the Tigers' seeding resume. Mizzou entered Friday on the border between a No. 6 and No. 7 seed and will stay in that range, albeit with a No. 7 next to its name looking like the more probable outcome.
Mitchell went through MU's walkthrough and warm-ups but was ultimately held out of the contest. "I have elected to not play Mark tonight in order to prevent any further injury and allow his knee to fully recover and be 100 percent," coach Dennis Gates said in a pregame statement. Center Josh Gray, who fouled out with 7:20 left in the game, started instead of Mitchell. Marshall and forward Aidan Shaw saw more action than usual.
Florida has the makings of a Final Four team, and that relentless composure seemed to be a factor in helping the Gators find separation. Often, a Mizzou mistake — whether a turnover or a badly missed shot — was punished by a UF bucket on the other end. There are certainly aspects of the Tigers' performance to critique, but the game may have largely shown the extent to which Florida is playing solid basketball during the most important month of the year.
Key stat
Less than 24 hours after holding Mississippi State to 36.4% shooting from the field, Missouri ran into a much more efficient offense in its second tournament matchup. Florida made 63% of its field goals, which is the best any team has shot from the floor against the Tigers. The previous high came from Auburn and Oklahoma, which each posted field-goal percentages of 57.1% in their wins over Missouri.
Key moment
Florida scoring the first 10 points of the game established the line of scrimmage — and a gap that Mizzou never could quite close. Key to that sequence was a flagrant foul called on Gray, who grabbed hold of Will Richard's face while trying to hold off the UF defender. That foul alone led to five points for the Gators — two from free throws and three from a triple Richard made on the possession that came with the offense.
Up next
The loss eliminates Missouri from the SEC Tournament. The Tigers will return to Columbia and await the NCAA Tournament bracket reveal during Sunday's selection show.
Photos: No. 21 Mizzou men's basketball falls in SEC Tournament quarterfinals to Florida
The Missouri bench watches play against Florida during the second half of a game in the quarterfinal round of the Southeastern Conference tournament Friday, March 14, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn.
George Walker IV, Associated Press
Missouri's Tamar Bates, left, drives against Florida's Alex Condon in a Southeastern Conference tournament game Florida won 95-81 on Friday, March 14, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn.
Wade Payne, Associated Press
Missouri’s Tamar Bates, left, and Jacob Crews, right, and Florida guard Alijah Martin look for a rebound during the first half of a quarterfinal game of the Southeastern Conference tournament on Friday in Nashville, Tenn.
Wade Payne, Associated Press
How slimming down roster size ahead of expected rule change affects Mizzou's special teams
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COLUMBIA, Mo. — Meetings of Missouri football’s special teams players feel like a ghost town these days.
“It feels like there’s no one in there,” kicker Blake Craig said, which is fair to feel.
Last year, the Tigers had four kickers, two punters and three long snappers on the roster. This spring, that’s down to two kickers, one punter and one long snapper.
Who snatched the specialists? The future of college sports.
One of the key changes to college sports that would arrive with the expected approval of a legal settlement in the House v. NCAA case is the reworking of roster limits across sports. If the settlement receives final approval in April, which is likely, “walk-on” athletes will be a thing of the past.
Football programs, for example, will offer more scholarships but fewer overall roster spots. Last year, teams possessed 85 scholarship spots and could roster a total of 120 players. If the House settlement is approved, there will be 105 roster spots, all of which are on scholarship — so more players on scholarship but fewer overall.
And whom does that affect?
“The reality of it is it impacts the entire roster, to a degree — (but) certainly at the specialist positions,” Mizzou special teams coordinator Erik Link said Tuesday. “We’ll carry probably about three less specialists than we typically have in the past.”
The positive spin on a shallower special teams room is that it creates more of an “NFL mindset,” as Link put it, when it comes to depth — or a lack thereof. The negative spin is that roster spots for specialists around the nation have disappeared, and injuries to a specialist position could put programs in quite the pickle.
Even though the House settlement has not received formal and final approval, MU coach Eli Drinkwitz and his staff have approached this offseason as if the 105-player limit is going to take effect sometime before the start of the 2025 season. The Tigers have 98 players listed on their spring roster, which is a sizable decrease from last season and still under the expected cap.
Expect a couple of those remaining spots to go to specialist roles. By outlining his vision for what the special teams section of the depth chart will look like, Link confirmed Mizzou will almost certainly be bringing in a pair of specialists during the spring transfer portal window — perhaps not the splashiest of positions but very important to constructing depth.
“It’s going to be more of a true, probably two-deep in each position, and then try to have a spare, have a combo guy that can do both,” Link said. “And then try to have an emergency snapper, emergency holder — just try to be prepared.”
So at kicker: Craig will reprise his role as the starting kicker. True freshman Robert Meyer, who committed as a preferred walk-on when that designation meant something, is currently participating in spring practices and will be the backup.
At punter: Stanford transfer Connor Weselman is the only punter on the roster right now. MU will attempt to bring in another punter during the spring portal window to compete with him.
At long snapper: Brett Le Blanc is the only long snapper on the roster. This is another position where a spring portal addition is expected.
And the emergency plans: Craig and Meyer have both been practicing punting alongside Weselman during spring. Craig has experience doing so in high school and played goalkeeper in soccer, which involved a form of punting.
“It’s fun,” he said. “It’s something new.”
Should Le Blanc go down with an injury, linebacker Tommy Reese would be the emergency long snapper, Link said.
That kind of contingency scenario is commonplace in the NFL, where rosters are about half the size of what college rosters will be this year, further slimming down the number of specialists a team can carry. Mizzou, for instance, used two long snappers last year — one for punts, one for field goals/extra points — which is a foreign concept to a pro team.
Cutting the roster down to this point, though, involved some difficult conversations near the end of the 2024 season. With the roster-limit writing on the wall, MU’s coaches had to break the news to some walk-ons that their positions would not be part of the 105 — a locker room version of a layoff.
“We thought that it was fair to explain to our roster where they’re currently at and let those guys, after the season, make a decision on what’s best for their future,” Link said. “... We move forward as, ‘Hey, we’ve got to build a roster with 105 eventually.’ ”
That’s part of coaching in a tumultuous time for college sports.
“It’s really hard, right?” Link said. “But unfortunately, it’s part of the rules. We don’t make the rules. We just have to adapt and adjust, and I think that’s been the theme with college football for the last probably four or five years, right? You just kind of adapt and adjust. Give us the rules, give us the parameters and then we’ve got to go from there.”
Mizzou coach Eli Drinkwitz talks about what stands out about Mizzou's program and the challenges of the transfer portal. Video courtesy of Mizzou Athletics, edited by Jenna Jones.
