Advanced analytics aren't required to see that Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore is back to pitching at the elite level he displayed to start the season.
Liberatore starts at 1:20 p.m. Saturday as the Cardinals face the Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago in the second game of a three-game series.
On the strength of a record eight home runs, the Cubs walloped ӣƵ 11-3 in the series opener Friday.
Saturday's game is as close to a must-win as possible given it's the only one in the series where the Cardinals can feel fairly confident that their starting pitcher will keep them in it. Friday's opening game starter (Miles Mikolas) and Sunday's starter (Erick Fedde) are both in the midst of difficult stretches.
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Saturday's starter, the left-hander Liberatore (6-6, 3.70 ERA) has a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts all wins for Liberatore. The resurgence follows a six-game stretch in which his ERA was north of five as opposing batters teed off to the tune of a .309 batting average.
Though the fact is apparent that Liberatore has remedied those woes and returned to his stellar early season form, the underlying statistics help to prove that point.
In his last three, both his batting average against (.209) and expected batting average against (.245) are fairly similar to his early season numbers (.214 batting average against, .239 expected batting average against).
His swing-and-miss rate on pitches within the strike zone is back up near early-season numbers, indicating he has regained his stuff.
His fastball regained its vertical movement after a downturn coinciding with his struggles, and he threw that four-seamer more in each of the last couple of games than he had to that point for the most part.
In the last three games, he's averaging just more than one barrelled ball allowed per game after seeing those numbers skyrocket during his struggles.
Liberatore is back on track toward rather uncommon success as far as recent Cardinals seasons go.
Among Cardinals lefty starters age 25 or under, only Liberatore, Jaime Garcia and Rick Ankiel have recorded 10 or more games allowing two or fewer runs in a season since 2000.
For the Cubs, right-hander Jameson Taillon was set to start, but he was placed on the injured list Friday with a calf strain.
Instead, the Cubs will send out left-hander Drew Pomeranz (2-1, 0.00 ERA) to start a bullpen game. The 36-year-old hadn't pitched in the majors since 2021 before this season. He has started two games this year, throwing one inning in each.
The Cardinals are 47-42, third in the National League Central and 6 1/2 games behind the Cubs, who are 53-35.
How to watch Cardinals at Cubs
When: 1:20 p.m. Saturday
Where: Wrigley Field in Chicago
TV/radio: FanDuel Sports Network Midwest (); KMOX (1120 AM and 104.1 FM), other stations in the as well as .
Your options to watch: Input your ZIP code and see your choices for watching Cardinals games.
Lineups
Note: The Cardinals' lineup has been updated to reflect the Cardinals scratching Nolan Arenado with a right shoulder impingement. Thomas Saggese takes his place.
CARDINALS
1. Brendan Donovan, 2B
2. Masyn Winn, SS
3. Willson Contreras, 1B
4. Alec Burleson, RF
5. Thomas Saggese, 3B
6. Lars Nootbaar, LF
7. Nolan Gorman, DH
8. Pedro Pagés, C
9. Victor Scott II, CF
P: Matthew Liberatore, LHP
CUBS
1. Ian Happ, LF
2. Kyle Tucker, RF
3. Seiya Suzuki, DH
4. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
5. Dansby Swanson, SS
6. Carson Kelly, C
7. Michael Busch, 1B
8. Nico Hoerner, 2B
9. Matt Shaw, 3B
P: Drew Pomeranz, LHP
Injury report
Nolan Arenado, 3B (swollen right hand, sprained finger): After missing two games in Pittsburgh and not playing third since Sunday, Arenado returns from the lineup Friday. He had a sprained finger that made it difficult to grip a bat and impossible to throw. X-rays taken did not show any fracture, and he was prescribed a break to rest the digit. Updated July 4
Jordan Walker, OF (appendicitis): A wrist injury that also limited his playing time in June is part of the reason the Cardinals expect Walker to remain on his rehab assignment for a longer stretch than just proving his health. The hope from the team is it won't take two weeks for his return from the Cubs weekend and then dip into the All-Star break. Updated July 4
Willson Contreras, 1B (bruised left hand): Back in the lineup Friday at Wrigley Field as expected after missing Wednesday's game due to a bruised hand. Contreras was struck on the hand by a pitch Tuesday and unable to finish that game due to stiffness and pain. X-rays taken at the ballpark did not show any fractures. Updated July 4
Ivan Herrera, C/DH (left hamstring strain): Herrera has continued to intensify his workouts and increase his running in ӣƵ, and the Cardinals believe he'll be cleared to go on a rehab assignment in a week to 10 days. That rules out his return before the All-Star break, and they are looking at him for the lineup when the second half begins. Updated July 4
Zack Thompson, LHP (shoulder, lat strain): Lefty starter has begun a throwing program designed to strengthen his arm after a long stretch without much activity. The shoulder has responded well and Thompson has felt progress with this program, which had to be restarted because his recovery stalled in May. There is no timetable for his return to the mound. Updated June 19
