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In the past two seasons, the Cardinals traded a player at the deadline that went on to contribute to a World Series championship, putting John Mozeliak on the opposite side of a deadline deal likely to help define his tenure atop baseball operations.

In 2023, the Cardinals flipped two players they got a year earlier at the deadline to Texas, and lefty Jordan Montgomery helped drive the Rangers to their first championship a few months later. A year ago, at the 2024 trade deadline, the Cardinals sent Tommy Edman to the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of a three-team trade. Edman won the National League Championship Series MVP on his way to a ring with the Dodgers and a lucrative extension.

Take note interested clubs.

The Cardinals could pull off a hat trick as trade deadline kingmaker.

Trading for players to boost a postseason run – not trading away those players – used to be the annual goal of the Cardinals, and as Mozeliak reaches his final trade deadline as the club’s president of baseball operations selling seems most likely. It’s not the approach they wanted, but it is the approach they advertised and expected.

While the coverage in the newspaper focuses on what’s ahead for the Cardinals – dealing veteran relievers, listening on a few young players – the newsletter takes a look back at Mozeliak’s previous 17 trade deadlines at the helm of baseball operations. There were salary swaps (like 2017, 2019) and stand pats (like 2009, 2013!, 2020). I looked at the players moved out and the players brought in, and what Wins Above Replacement (WAR) they added to their new team or the Cardinals, respectively.

An example: Edman provided the Dodgers a 2.1 WAR so far, and the Cardinals got a 0.8 WAR from Erick Fedde before cutting him this past week. Tommy Pham was also in the deal and was a minus-0.4 WAR with the Cardinals to yield a minus-1.7 WAR deal.

The metric isn’t foolproof – relievers tend to lag – but it helps map the highs and lows and plenty of huhs from past deadline days for the Cardinals and how they’ve done in the Mozeliak era.

The Headliner

In 2009, after they got off the charter train from D.C. in Philadelphia, Mark DeRosa texted teammate Skip Schumaker that he was “the appetizer.” Acquired by the Cardinals a few weeks early, DeRosa was referencing a trade more than a year in the making. The Cardinals, near the deadline, acquired Matt Holliday. Mozeliak landed his future Cardinals Hall of Famer and one of the most lopsided deals in Cardinals’ history.

The Cardinals sent RHP Clayton Mortensen, 3B Brett Wallace, and OF Shane Peterson to Oakland for Holliday. That trio combined for a minus-0.9 WAR and little return for their teams. (Although, Mortensen was once traded for Marco Scutaro before he and Holliday would collide in October.) Holliday gave the Cardinals their cleanup hitter and a 2.3 WAR that season. He re-signed as a free agent the next winter and finished with a 23.0 WAR and a red jacket.

• Plus-3.1 WAR deal, but eventually a plus-23.9 WAR acquisition.

The Win-Wins

At the 2017 deadline, the Cardinals traded LHP Marco Gonzales to Seattle for OF Tyler O’Neill. Gonzales would provided the Mariners 8.4 WAR and a reliable starter, and though his time with the Cardinals was interrupted by injuries, O’Neill had a standout year and 10.1 WAR. In the end, not the high upside either team hoped, but the trade yielded contributions on both side.

At the 2018 deadline, the Cardinals sought a lefty reliever and dealt 1B Luke Voit to the Yankees to get LHP Chasen Shreve along with a right-hander Giovanny Gallegos. The deal proved to be more equal than either team projected. Gallegos, a 4.4 WAR reliever for the Cardinals, helped balance Voit’s breakout year and 4.8 WAR total in pinstripes.

At the 2022 deadline, the Cardinals sought a lefty reliever – is there an echo in here? – and dealt backup infielder Edmundo Sosa to Philadelphia for JoJo Romero. After his key outing in Thursday’s win, Romero has a 2.7 WAR for the Cardinals. Sosa has a 4.7 WAR, and he got to the World Series with the Phillies, giving the Cardinals three consecutive deadlines where they’ve moved a player who won a pennant.

• Minus-0.2 WAR on Gallegos deal. Plus-1.7 WAR on O'Neill, and minus-2.0 WAR on Romero, though TBD still.

The Flops

The Cardinals’ ability to deal outfielders who shine elsewhere is not limited to the winter or waivers. At the 2018 deadline, the Cardinals sold a little, bought a little, and tried to get a strong return on an outfielder without a spot, the aforementioned Pham. They traded him to Tampa Bay in return for OF Justin Williams, LHP Genesis Cabrera, and RHP Roel Ramirez. Pham went on to be a 6.4 WAR player and leave a minus-7.2 WAR gap in the deal.

At the 2021 deadline, a stark need for starters led the Cardinals to an unlikely deal for longtime rival Jon Lester. Even the lefty said the deal was possible because he didn’t have a no-trade clause. Cubs standout Lester got his 200th win with the Cardinals, and in return Washington got Lane Thomas, another outfielder squeezed out of the lineup by the Cardinals. Thomas was 6.4 WAR player for the Nats. Lester chipped in 0.1 WAR in his weeks as a Cardinal.

• Minus-6.3 WAR on Lester deal. Minus-7.2 WAR on Rays deal.

The Flips

The 2022 deadline was active for the Cardinals as they added their Game 1 starter for a playoff series, Jose Quintana, and in other deals Romero and Montgomery. It’s what happened a year later that puts a new look on the 2022 deadline. They flipped some of those same players for prospects that could tilt the look of these deals by next year.

The Cardinals acquired Montgomery from the Yankees for OF Harrison Bader. Montgomery was a 3.0 WAR for the Cardinals and Bader had 0.9 WAR for the Yankees. Stratton came with Quintana and gave the Cardinals a 0.5 WAR in exchange for a deal centered around RHP Johan Oviedo, who has given the Pirates 2.9 WAR.

In 2023, the Cardinals flipped Montgomery with Stratton to Texas for LHP John King, RHP Tekoah Roby, and INF Thomas Saggese. Montgomery gave the Rangers a 1.8 WAR before striking it rich as a champion. King has been a 1.1 WAR lefty so far for the Cardinals, and Roby is in Class AAA Memphis about to be one of the Cardinals top three pitching prospects.

• Plus-2.1 WAR on Montgomery deal with Yankees. Minus-0.7 WAR on Pirates deal. In fairness, TBD on Rangers deal.

The Tearjerker

At the 2014 deadline, two beloved members of the Cardinals clubhouse found out in awkward ways that they had been dealt to Boston for an irascible right-hander described as the “rusty nail” the team needed. There were tears in the clubhouse and manager Mike Matheny confessed to being emotional about the move. Considering John Lackey’s contract, the deal was nearly a masterstroke – if the Cardinals didn’t fall shy in the NLCS of a second consecutive.

The Cardinals sent 1B/OF Allen Craig and RHP Joe Kelly to the Red Sox for right-hander Lackey and the minimum salary he also had for 2015. Lackey was a 5.4 WAR pitcher for the Cardinals. Craig was never the same, and Kelly gave the Sox 2.5 WAR and helped win a World Series ring in 2018.

• Plus-4.3 WAR ... before Lackey vamoosed to Cubs for a ring.

The Weavers

Not to be confused with the pitching brothers – one of whom definitely served this same purpose for the Cardinals almost two decades ago – these are the moves that, like a rug, bring the whole room together.

In 2010, the Cardinals finally landed the groundball-guru that they had been coveting for awhile: Jake Westbrook. All it took was San Diego and Cleveland drawing them into a three-team deal that sent OF Ryan Ludwick to the Padres and brought Westbrook to the Cardinals. He was an influential starter for the Cardinals and part of three consecutive NLCS teams and two World Series clubs. Ludwick was a minus-0.6 WAR in San Diego to Westbrook’s 1.0 WAR in ӣ����Ƶ.

The big winner in the deal was Cleveland.

Cleveland got Cory Kluber, a 32.5 WAR pitcher during his time there, and – near as I can tell – the most impactful player by that metric involved in any of these deadline deals involving the Cardinals since 2008.

In 2012, the Cardinals needed a reliever for the seventh inning, and they acquired RHP Edward Mujica from the Marlins for 3B Zack Cox, a former first-round pick. Cox never reached the majors. Mujica reached the All-Star Game as the Cardinals closer and a 2.8 WAR reliever.

• Plus-2.8 WAR on Mujica addition, but much more, really. Plus-1.6 WAR on Westbrook add compared to Padres. 

The (Subtle) Blockbuster

If the Holliday deal was the most predictable, then the most stunning deal of Mozeliak’s tenure came in 2011. It included an outfielder who, like others, would go on to be the most productive player after the deal for his new team. But that’s forgotten to history because flags fly forever.

At the deadline in 2011, the Cardinals willingness to part with young, talented first-rounder Colby Rasmus became an eight-player swap with Toronto that included an assist from the Chicago White Sox. The Cardinals sent Rasmus, LHP Trever Miller, LHP Brian Tallet, and RHP P. J. Walters, to the Jays for RHP Octavio Dotel, LHP Marc Rzepczynski, RHP Edwin Jackson (via Sox), and OF Corey Patterson.

As a group, that foursome provided Cardinals 0.2 WAR.

Rasmus would bring Toronto 6.7 WAR.

That make the deal a net negative (minus-6.2 WAR for Cardinals).

But Dotel & Co. revitalized the Cardinals’ bullpen, Jon Jay took off in center, and the Cardinals put together a remarkable September that didn’t stop until they upset the Rangers for the 2011 World Series. That is the final say on a trade, regardless of WAR. Measure them in title rings.

Montgomery, 1.

Stratton, 1.

Edman, 1.

Kelly, 1.

Cardinals, 1.����

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This week's newsletter also looks at the Cardinals' pitching depth after moving Michael McGreevy into the rotation, flips the script on a trusted statistic to consider pitchers and their un-quality starts, and also uses the Cardinals' draft approach to identify potential trade targets.

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