Read the full transcript our weekly Blues chat.
Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon! The draft is next weekend, free agency is July 1 and development camp around then too. Let's get to your questions.
TylerG: Matty D, I hope you and the family are doing well and you are finally getting into a sleep schedule or at least getting some consecutive/consistent zzz’s. I have a Blues question and a random NHL question. 1) What does your gut say about the Blues drafting out of the #19 spot? That sure feels like a great spot in round 1 to package in a bigger trade especially considering this draft isn’t all that deep from my understanding. 2) How long do NHL teams take to leave a visiting arena after a game? An hour or less is my guess. I’m sure in SCF/playoffs it’s different because of media, but I was wondering about Edmonton last night. That’s a long flight after back to back SCF loses and would make me think they’d want to get the heck out of there haha. Anyway, thanks for doing this as always, cheers bro!
Matthew DeFranks: I'm of the opinion that that pick should be in play for the Blues. Remember just two years ago when Doug Armstrong tried to send a first to Philadelphia in the nixed Krug/Sanheim deal. Now, the Blues are in a different part of their transition as a franchise, and if last year showed us much, it's that the Blues are willing to trade picks since they believe they already have a lot of bodies available in the young prospect age.
This season is an interesting one for the Blues since it'll be the last one for them with Broberg and Holloway on cheap deals, plus Bolduc on his ELC. The cap will continue to go up, but so will the raises for internal pieces. So this season is suddenly one with an unique mix of contracts and ages.
Now, what would that pick be able to get you? Not sure. Last summer, a 2025 second got the Caps Andrew Mangiapane. A first-round pick (plus smaller pieces) got Ottawa Linus Ullmark.
As for how soon teams leave after a game, the flight is typically scheduled for about 1:15 or 1:30 after the game. For example, a 7 p.m. game might have a 11 p.m. flight. That time includes time for showers, interviews, security checks, bus to the airport, loading the plane, all that small stuff.
So the bus might leave the arena within an hour of the game ending to head to the airport for the postgame flight. I would think in the Oilers case with the long flight that they stayed over in Florida last night, and then flew out this morning, but that's a guess.
Some teams have resorted to staying after a game pretty often. The Panthers are one team that does it all the time. They play a game, stay the night, then fly the next day.
The Blues typically have only stayed over after west coast games. It's better to sleep on the west coast then fly back the next day due to the long flight, and the time change.
DenMizzou: Hello, Mr. DeFranks. Thanks for your excellent coverage of the Blues, and the chats. A lot of articles I read regarding ranking teams' prospects say that the Blues do not have any "difference-makers", beyond Snuddergard, but have a good number of solid, third-line prospects. Do you agree with that assessment? Thanks.
Matthew DeFranks: I can understand where that comes from, but I'm not sure I agree with the verbiage. The general sentiment is that the Blues have a lot of good bets to be good NHLers, but no real slam dunks to be stars. And a lot of that comes from where the Blues have been drafting. Dvorsky at 10 was the teams highest pick in 15 years. But I think Dvorsky and Snuggerud will become top-six contributors. As the Blues have shown with Thomas and Kyrou, you don't need top picks to secure top players.
Hocko in Colorado: Hey Matthew, hope you're family is well and your getting some sleep this days. So ... why do hockey players even bother with mouth/teeth guards? Seems like it's always dangling out of their mouth even while they're skating.
Matthew DeFranks: It's a real epidemic with some of the young Americans, most notably of course with Matthew Tkachuk. I think a lot of it stems from just something to do or feel busy with. Robert Thomas is one of those guys with the Blues.
Eric: Hey Matthew - let the offseason begin! With the buyout window opening it seems like a good time to revisit it. I know Army is loath to use it, but there are few potential candidates that wouldn't cost a lot this time (Joseph, Leddy). Do you think he goes there this time? Thanks!
Matthew DeFranks: For those that don't know about the buyout window, it opens 48 hours after the Cup Final ends, and goes until 5 p.m. ET on June 30.
To me, the best buyout candidate this summer for the Blues is Alexander Texier and it's not close.
For players younger than 26 years, a buyout is for one-third of the remaining money across twice the remaining term. Texier is younger than 26 and has just one year left at $2.1 million.
The math on that is that Texier would count $350,000 on the cap the next two seasons if he's bought out this summer. That's so minor of a cap charge, it's less than half of a league-minimum salary.
Matt L: Some have suggested Bennett as an option for the Blues. Maybe at one point but fresh off winning the Conn Smythe he couldn’t possibly be in the Blues price range could he? Separate but related question, assuming he hits the open market, could the bidding for him push into the 10M+ AAV range? Like the player but that would be crazy for the modest production he brings relative to that price.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, I think that type of player can help a lot of different teams. But it's worth remembering that his last four seasons have been 49, 40, 41 and 51 points. On a per 82 game basis, Brayden Schenn has outperformed him by five points a season, basically.
Some team is going to get very, um, frisky with Bennett and he's probably not the type of player that's going to age well into a long-term contract.
The player is great. The contract he's going to sign if he leaves Florida won't be. Of course, if he stays in Florida, it'll be a good deal because that's all the Panthers sign.
Matt L: Have you heard anything about William Karlson being available from Vegas? Sounds like Petro might have a significant injury and miss all or most of next year. (Rumor is he could be out long enough to be unavailable for the Olympics.) Is there a deal where the blues send a vet D and a pick (maybe 19) to Vegas for Karlson? He’s got a very reasonable cap hit for two more years and would fit nicely under Thomas and wouldn’t block someone like Dvorsky long term. Thoughts?
Matthew DeFranks: William Karlsson would be a good fit. I've thought about Vincent Trocheck in New York. But from what I've read from national reporters and other beat reporters, those guys aren't available. But they would be solid, reasonable, veteran stopgaps to improve depth down the middle.
Sctdog: If you look at the regular season stats the Blues and Panters were close, GF and GA only a few goals apart. However, you look at the line up and the depth FL appears well ahead. They have great center strength, for example their 3rd line center may command near $8 million this off season, we have Sunny. Wings and D seem well rounded with plumbers and scorers as well, Bob vs Binner is near enough to call it a push. Both teams were just mid pack in these same stats, with the Panters showing the regular season is just a warm up and they ramped from there using their stars and depth. What areas do the Blues need to fix to be in the same playoff class?
Matthew DeFranks: I think looking at the regular-season numbers for the Panthers is kind of tough because of how much time their top players missed during the season. Just looking at their top average TOI in the playoffs.
Jones was a mid-season acquisition and played 21 games with Florida.
Ekblad missed 26 games, and 20 of them due to a PED suspension.
Barkov missed 15 games.
Tkachuk was out for 30 games and didn't play at all after 4 Nations.
Of course, Marchand was a deadline add and also was hurt.
That's five of their top 10 most used players in the playoffs that missed significant time in the regular season with the Panthers.
To me, it's less about how close the Blues are to the Panthers, and more about how the regular season Panthers weren't even the same players as the postseason ones.
Sctdog: Looking at center depth and Dvorsky it would appear Thomas may be a good comp. He entered the league has a highly touted 19 year old center who played 3RW his first year on a deep team. He shifted to center the next year and not until he was in his 4th year did he really break out, got hurt his third year. If Dvorsky follows this path then 25/26 he’s a 3 winger, 27/28 maybe at the earliest he’s holding his own as a 2C and then who knows. Is this a likely projection for Dvorsky, and if so it would seem that if they keep him then the Blues Cup window opens at the earliest in 27/28.
Matthew DeFranks: Seems reasonable, and that's why I think the Blues still go out and keep acquiring veterans or proven NHLers while the young players develop. Let the young players prove that they are the better option, and then you can waive guys like Saad or Kapanen, etc.
As for the Cup window, I don't think it revolves around Dvorsky becoming a contributor. There are other ways to find depth, and the fact that he's developing is good, but not the sole reason a Cup window opens.
Sctdog: Are the Blues looking for just 5 % better and maybe a second round exit in 25/26 or is the expectation for something more? If its more then they need to hurriedly build up the middle and add a top 4 D, if its 5% better then it appears they can be more patient.
Matthew DeFranks: I think the patient improvement will be the mindset here. I'm not sure how prudent it is to hand Steen the reins and say "take us to the next level now" instead of continuing in the correct direction.
DCG: MD: So, where are we with Parayko at this point? He's clearly never going to a Pronger sandpaper-type that fans wanted given their similar frames, but it seemed like he took a big step forward last year after a couple of years of, if not regressing, then not progressing. He seemed to get more physical and was a solid +/- given how much he matches up with top lines and takes defensive zone faceoffs. Plus, he seemed to get more aggressive with his howitzer shot. Monty clearly trusts him a lot. Fans have whined about his contract, but will the last few years of it look like a bargain with the new cap?
Matthew DeFranks: Parayko had a great season last year, and I think he had a tough ending to the season but that was in part due to circumstances. He was out of the lineup, and the Blues go on a big run. He's back and they start to lose again. Of course, there were some plays in the first round he'd like to have back. But overall, I think he had a great season and the fact that him and Fowler played well together bodes well for them in the future.
His contract will always analytically be a bad one but that's due to two things. One, Parayko doesn't drive play and on-ice impact can affect analytical value. Two, he doesn't produce crazy numbers offensively, and that's what a lot of players get paid on.
But his contract is good for what he does, and you're right, it'll be fine when the cap goes up.
Matt L: Do you have a sense of what the Blues expectations are for Dvorsky and Snuggerud for the upcoming season? Are the Blues counting on them to make the team out of camp? Looked like you could pencil Snuggerud in, less sure on Dvorsky.
Matthew DeFranks: We'll probably speak to Armstrong before the draft next week, but his comments at the end of the season made it seem like Snuggerud will have a Bolduc-like leash next season when he'll be excused of some mistakes. Dvorsky, I still think we may see him in the AHL. If he were Canadian, he would just now be turning pro and wouldn't have the expectations of being in the NHL. He's still a young kid whose development seems sped up because of the shift from Europe.
Sctdog: In two or three seasons when this team is hopefully knocking on the door for the cup Faulk, Leedy on D, Sunny, Walker, Faksa, and of course Texier and Joesph who may not make it out of camp, will be gone. Given their prospects and players age isn’t adding a mid 20 something year old top 4 D more critical currently than a 2/3C? Of the main guys, only Broberg based on age and health can be expected to have better and more impactful years moving forward, Faulk, Leddy and soon even Parrayko will be impacted by age, and their next prospect will only start in the AHL this year.
Matthew DeFranks: Potentially in the long term, sure. But when you look at the cap situation, they can't do everything at once. And next year, those guys are still around, so it's about timing.
Sctdog: Local radio is often full of UFA talk, however, I can’t think of a top-rated UFA that has signed with the Blues since Statsny nearly a decade ago, and he had some hometown connections. It appears Army has tried, but while StL is not Winnipeg, it doesn’t appear that it’s a place where top tier UFA’s want to land. The result being that Army must use trades to gain major assets not free agency.
Matthew DeFranks: Doug Armstrong has always been pretty matter-of-fact about this fact. I'll try to sum up his usual thinking.
If the Blues are doing everything right, they will probably still be a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of FA attractiveness.
There's the tax-free states (Dallas, Florida, Tampa, Vegas, Nashville). There's the Original Six (Montreal, Toronto, NY Rangers, Chicago, Detroit, Boston). There's the warm-weather playoffs teams (Carolina, LA). Add in the star factor (Colorado, Edmonton).
If you concede that those situations are mostly more attractive to the average FA, then the Blues would at best be 16th in the league.
So Armstrong figured out other ways to build teams with strong trades and deep finds in drafts. It's worked well for him for the most part. It's ironic that some of his mistakes have occurred in free agency.
Sctdog: Can the Blues have both Snuggy and Bolduc as shooters on the team or do they need to trade one of these guy’s and their potential to gain more of a Neighbors type grinding player or a center to round out their forward lines. I’m not sure how many plumbers with skill you need on your top three lines, but someone needs to do the dirty work in the corners and on the defensive side seemingly on all three lines.
Matthew DeFranks: I think there's room for both of them. I particularly think that both will gain a bit more of an edge with the more NHL games they play. Bolduc is already showing signs of becoming a pest, and he'll probably need to harness that better if the penalties in the playoffs were any indication. And Snuggerud made a lot of plays winning battles and making plays away from the puck to gain respect from veterans.
You always need a mix. There needs to be a diversity of skillset throughout the lineup, and it's just about the right mix, I guess.
Sctdog: I was surprised how the Stars offense dried up and made the Edm defensive play look top notch. Then I saw Edm get run over by FL and had to wonder if it was the Stars falling on their face vs Edm playing good defense. I thought Dallas was set for their best run, now I wonder if they are going to start sliding. Do you have any thoughts?
Matthew DeFranks: This was the year for Dallas. Jim Nill never trades first-round picks, and he did that for Granlund and Rantanen. Now they're in a big cap crunch, there are legitimate questions about how they pay Jason Robertson next summer, and they'll need to find a lot of undervalued assets (like they did with Matt Duchene) in order to still fill out a deep lineup.
I do think Stuart Skinner had a great series vs. Dallas, and Jake Oettinger wasn't very good. So the goaltending played a big part of that series, but it never felt like the Stars had much of a chance late in the series, you're right.
Matt L: I assume the Blues want to extend Hofer and will try to do that sooner than later. Edmonton learned about the risk of spending yourself up to the cap last year before signing your RFAs and coincidentally they should also be in the goalie market this summer. What do you think an extension for Hofer looks like? He’s got 3 more years before he’s UFA eligible. Do you give him 2 more years? That would sync him up with the end of Binner’s deal. That could work out well if he’s ready to take over as the starter by then. 2 x 2.75?
Matthew DeFranks: I do think his market value is probably in the $2.5M range, and you can add in the cap increase and get to a $2.75M valuation rather easily. The Blues should still have enough space to protect against an offer sheet up to the $4.68M tier. Above that, and the Blues might just take the first and third round picks and say thank you.
Some comps from an earlier story I did about the cap situation: Dan Vladar might be the closest comparison, and he signed a two-year contract that began at age 25 in 2023 worth $2.2 million annually.Connor Ingram (three years, $1.95 million cap hit), Pyotr Kochetkov (four years, $2 million cap hit) and Stuart Skinner (three years, $2.6 million cap hit) are other examples in that ballpark, albeit with different circumstances and experience.On the higher end, there’s Jeremy Swayman’s previous contract (one year, $3.475 million) after splitting time with Linus Ullmark, and Filip Gustavsson’s three-year deal averaging $3.75 million after platooning with Marc-Andre Fleury.
Matt L: 3 notable blues become extension eligible on July 1 - Holloway, Broberg and Fowler. I assume the Blues will take a wait and see approach with Fowler with him being 33. Do you think they try to get anything done with Holloway or Broberg?
Matthew DeFranks: If I am the Blues, I am trying my best to get something long-term done. If I'm the players, I'm waiting. Both Broberg and Holloway saw how much can change in a good way in one season, and I would think they want to see again what they can do to maximize earnings.
I think back to Jake Neighbours last year, though. He was eligible for an extension, Doug Armstrong said let's wait and then suddenly in the first month of the season, it was signed.
Matt L: Didn’t Army say the re-whatever is over? He’s not going to hamstring the future but I think he’s going to be aggressive. He wants to get the cup window back open next year not in 3 years.
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, the prospect collection part of the process is over. They want to keep progressing, and that doesn't just sit around and wait for one player to mature.
Eric: Speaking of Dvorsky, did you find his healthy scratch and the coach's comments at the World Championships at all concerning? I know he's still young, but it sounded like his coach thought he had a long way to go in his development.
Matthew DeFranks: I don't make too much of it, honestly. He's a young player. That's a country that really cares about the World Championship. It happens.
Easy Ed - fan since 1967: Hi Matt, Hope you and the family are well. Looks like the Blues will more likely acquire a 2Center through trade. Are there any free agents they should realistically consider? Do you have any idea of who a trade target may be? Thanks.
Matthew DeFranks: Mikael Granlund would be a nice addition, but he could still cost too much.
pugger: Matt!! How do we pry Byram out of Buffalo without decimating our roster/young prospects?????
Matthew DeFranks: Not sure. I truly don't know what Buffalo is looking for in return. They can't always be looking for futures, can they?
DCG: Just a follow up on Parayko: I did a little research and he was tied for 6th in goals scored among D-men despite missing 18 games. He was on pace for 20, which would have been 2nd overall. So, that's pretty good. He doesn't rack up assists, though, which is what I think you meant by "driving play." His AAV is about 40th in the league among D-men. Given all that context, respectfully, I feel like he's a bit more of a bargain than maybe you do.
Matthew DeFranks: Sure thing. I accept your disagreement, and it's valid. I just think that goals by a defenseman is sometimes a bit more random than goals by forwards. Last year, Chychrun was third and Montour was fourth in goals by a defenseman. Year before, Weegar was third. In 2022-23, Skjei was fifth. And in 2021-22, Faulk was fifth.
So it's not that those players aren't good, but it's that a defenseman could catch a hot streak or a hot season and not produce at that level again if his offense is based around goals vs. assists.
And the play-driving topic was more so aimed at on-ice effects (relative expected goals, scoring chances, etc.)
pugger: I think everyone now knows that FL is the "King of the Hill" and it's going to take a special team to knock them off. Unreal how they built that roster.. Smart move after smart move..
Matthew DeFranks: Bill Zito successfully tore down all of Dale Tallon's bad contracts, and then acquired good players on great deals in their place. One of the sharpest turnarounds for a franchise, particularly that one with so much garbage in the decades before him.
pugger: Hey Matt. Any thoughts on the Blues young guys who aren't at the top of the prospect list. Any of those guys have a shot at making any kind of significant impact at the NHL level you think? I know it's hard to project, but you've seen at least tape of most these guys. Thougths?
Matthew DeFranks: Juraj Pekarcik has a lot of skill. Jakub Stancl's size could give him a chance in pro hockey. Colin Ralph can move well for a big man. And I'll guess at least one of the Russians pans out, but I don't know which one.
pugger: Well, it IS Buffalo.. :)
Matthew DeFranks: Whenever you feel sad, remember you're not a Sabres fan.
DCG: Even more remarkable, is after a President's Trophy season based on fast-paced high octane offense, but ending in a first round flameout, he tore all down, traded for Tkachuk and they changed direction to a physical, grind-it-out style and have been in the last three Cup finals since. I'm hard pressed to think of a team in any sport that did that kind of 180 and pulled it off.
Matthew DeFranks: Also within that is a great ability to cut bait before a player's value becomes too inflated. Some of the players the Panthers have got rid of to watch them sign big, overpriced deals elsewhere: Chris Driedger, Jonathan Huberdeau, Mackenzie Weegar, Anthony Duclair, Claude Giroux, Radko Gudas, Brandon Montour.
Not to mention that Forsling, Bennett and Reinhart were all solid below-cost additions.
Bill: Hey Matt, Do you think Anaheim has Trevor Zegras available at this point? What do you think he would cost? He could slot in nice as a 2 or 3 C on this team.
Matthew DeFranks: I know Friedman spoke before about Zegras being available at the draft last year in a deal with Montreal. Not sure what the Ducks wanted, but he'd be a controllable asset that could definitely fit in the middle of the lineup.
He's had trouble staying on the ice, though.
Bill: What do you think is a realistic trade cost? I think his value has decreased a bit since last year due to about the same production but being injured again. I am not sure I would give up any of our top tier NHL ready guys yet for him (Bolduc, Neighbours, Snuggy, or Dvorsky). I would have no issues giving up our 1st (19) and Dean or one of the D prospects. Not sure that gets it done. He is tough to value which is probably why they cant/wont trade him up to now.
Matthew DeFranks: I agree that he is tough to value, and I think some of his name recognition was due more to the flashy way he played vs. the actual substance of what he produced.
I don't have a good answer for you, sadly.
Eric: Given the Blues only have three picks in the draft this year and the lack of depth in the UFA class, how much to you think the Blues add this off season?
Matthew DeFranks: The cap will limit a lot of what they can do unless they can ship out some money. But a depth forward at the very least should be expected. If it can be a 2C, great. But the money may not be there.
pugger: Edmonton and Toronto are desperate for a goalie that can stop a puck in the playoffs.. You think the Blues would explore that? Binnington? Or even HOfer + something, to get something good in return? Not sure what that would be, but there are assets there.. Knies, etc..
Matthew DeFranks: If the Blues trade Binnington, I can't see how they can explain trying to win more this coming season.
Lu: Apologies if this has been asked already, but what do you make of the growing disparity in purchasing power of teams in "no income tax" states?
I was a little miffed by Betman's answer the question when he was on with the TNT crew the other day. It didn't matter as much 10-20 years ago, but as salaries rise, so to does that disparity. At some point I'd think there needs to be some way to adress it.
Matthew DeFranks: I think it's overblown. This didn't matter when the Panthers were horrible under Dale Tallon and actually handing out some of the worst overpays in the league. Dallas and Vegas have to do cap gymnastics every year. Nashville just finished at the bottom of the standings this season.
Does it help? Absolutely. But competent management is the primary factor.
Every market has it's positives and negatives, and the NHL can't go around litigating every advantage that a team has.
It matters, sure. But it's also something that probably gets overblown. Players are paid based on where they earn that income, so when a Panthers player plays games in California, they pay California taxes for those days. So it's not like the entire salary is without state income tax. Most of it, sure, but not a cut and dry item.
Lu: Yea I see your point...compare Dallas and Winnipeg's market size. Surely Dallas has an easier time generating revenue. That doesn't mean we should look to the league to go boost Winnipeg's revenue. Appreciate the insight
Matthew DeFranks: Sure, and I think about fan engagement. Winning a Cup in Florida is great, but is it as impactful as winning one in Toronto? I'm sure that is of value to some players.
RIZZO: I was in Dallas during the time of Doug Gainey and Doug Armstrong... at the original / old StarCenter in Valley Ranch. Having been in the building and watching those two work together and then the hire of DA with ӣƵ... I hope it goes as well in the very near future. I'm a little concerned about Steen's actual experience in this day and age of analytics and salary caps. Any concern logical..???
Matthew DeFranks: I think there's a genuine reason to be concerned but there's also a structure in place around the Blues front office. Ryan Miller is a very sharp guy that handles the CBA and cap issues. And the Blues are building out more of their analytics department this summer with some openings.
So between that and the fact that Doug Armstrong will still be around as president of hockey operations, it's not like Steen has to do everything on his own.
RIZZO: Sorry.... Bob Gainey ;-)
Matthew DeFranks: Understandable slip.
Looks like we've cleared the queue, so we'll call it there for today. Have a good weekend, everyone.
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