Emerson has reinvented itself many times, and new Chief Executive Lal Karsanbhai served notice this week that he’s remaking the 131-year-old business once again.
This time, software will be the new growth engine for the Ferguson-based industrial company. Emerson had bought several small software firms that complemented its offerings in valves, sensors and air-conditioning compressors, but it made a much bigger bet Monday, obtaining 55% control of Massachusetts-based Aspen Technology in a deal valued at $11 billion.
Emerson will pay $6 billion in cash and turn over two of its current software businesses to AspenTech. Some investors apparently see that as a steep price: Emerson’s shares fell 5% in the three days after the deal was announced.
People are also reading…
Nicholas Heymann, an analyst at William Blair & Co. in Milwaukee, thinks the deal is structured to benefit Emerson over the long run.
For starters, the companies expect $3 billion worth of synergies, mostly from cross-selling AspenTech products to Emerson customers and vice versa.
“Most industrial investors don’t really put all that much faith in sales synergies as opposed to cost cuts, but I think these are real,” Heymann said.
Investors also may be reacting to the $6 billion of debt Emerson is taking on, nearly doubling its $7 billion of existing debt. it may downgrade Emerson’s credit rating, and the debt payments will leave less money for buying back stock.
“They still have a strong balance sheet, but that’s why you are seeing pressure on the shares,” said Jeff Windau, an analyst at Edward Jones. “It’s going to be about how fast they can pay that debt down.”
No one is questioning the strategic fit between Emerson and AspenTech. The two companies have had a commercial partnership since 2018, and they serve many of the same energy, chemical and pharmaceutical customers.
Karsanbhai, who became CEO in February, said in a phone interview that Emerson’s board recently identified industrial software as a growth opportunity, and quickly saw the fit with AspenTech.
Moving two of Emerson’s existing businesses — providing grid-management software to electric companies and geologic modeling for oil and gas firms — into AspenTech should make them more visible to investors.
“Those software businesses are very profitable and create a lot of value, but when they’re buried within an industrial business you may not get as much credit for their value,” Windau said.
Buying a majority interest, and letting AspenTech’s shares continue to trade on Nasdaq, also makes the software unit more visible than if Emerson had bought the company outright. Investors tend to assign richer valuations to high-growth, high-margin businesses like software.
Karsanbhai said the Aspen shares “give us a public currency to do a lot more in this space.” In other words, he’s found a vehicle for making more software acquisitions.
Heymann likes the deal’s structure.
“I think Lal has come up with a very innovative approach,” he said. “It’s just going to take a while to convince the market what this ultimately will allow Emerson to do.”
Karsanbhai professes to be unconcerned about the market’s chilly reaction.
“There is complexity in this transaction,” he said. “We need to allow time for it to be fully understood.”
He also hinted that he’s not done remaking Emerson. Industrial software is one of four expansion opportunities the board identified, he said, but he’s not talking publicly about the others yet, and he isn’t looking for quick fixes.
“It’s a marathon,” Karsanbhai said. “We are going to be intentional, and we’re going to be intelligent about it.”