With Independence Day looming on the horizon, the Cardinals seem likely to hang in the playoff race past another key season milestone.
But that doesn’t stop folks from speculating on potential Cardinals trades ahead of the deadline. Writing for , Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan ranked third baseman Nolan Arenado, reliever Ryan Helsley and starting pitcher Erick Fedde among the Top 30 trade targets in the majors.
They also placed Phil Maton and Steven Matz in the 31-to-50 tier of targets. So, yeah, rival teams will keep tracking the Cardinals during the weeks ahead.
Tuesday night provided another showcase. Helsley escaped a harrowing ninth-inning jam to earn the save against the Chicago Cubs in the 8-7 victory.
Arenado made a do-or-die defensive play to end the game, fielding a soft chopper with his bare hand to get the final out. Earlier in the game, Maton got four huge outs in a high-leverage scenario.
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On the other hand, Fedde did NOT help his market value Wednesday. The Cubs lit him up in their 8-0 victory.
McDaniel and Passan the likelihood of Arenado and Helsley trades at 30 percent and the likelihood of Fedde moving on at 50 percent.
Here is how they assessed those players:
Arenado is around a career best in strikeout rate, and he's still an above-average defender, but his power and patience are both trending down to around the worst of his career. He's still a solid starter but no longer a star, and the team taking him on a deal would still have to pay him like one. Potentially complicating any deal: a full no-trade clause.
Helsley had the fourth-best WAR among relievers last season and is in a contract year now but has been notably worse this season. His stuff and locations are pretty similar, but the main difference is his fastball is getting hit hard -- with one byproduct being his spiking home run rate.
Fedde's strikeout and walk numbers have regressed from his breakout 2024 season (after coming back from a stint in the KBO League), but he's allowing less damage on batted balls to keep himself in the rotation.
The Cardinals have been receiving more near-term bullpen help from their prospect pool and several starting pitching prospects have enjoyed upturns as well. Multiple hitters are pushing their way up the organizational ladder, too, so John Mozeliak will have some decisions to make during his final days at the baseball czar.
Here is what folks are writing about Our National Pastime:
Will Leitch, : “Considering how idle their offseason was and how skeptical some of the fanbase has become in the past few years, the Cardinals’ first half has to be considered an unabashed success. It has been a pleasant mix of veterans stepping up (the still-here Nolan Arenado, a hanging-in-there starting rotation), younger players making the turn toward established contributors (Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson) and MLB newbies becoming key Cardinals for years to come (Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II). But the Cardinals don’t quite look built to last. That rotation is barely holding together, neither Nolan Gorman nor Jordan Walker are playing like the centerpieces they were meant to be, and perhaps most important, this team is unlikely to make any moves to shore up deficiencies on the roster. This was always a year of transition for ӣƵ, and a surprising first half isn’t going to change that. The target is still 2026 and onward: ‘25 is likely to be treated as the happy accident it sort of is.”
R.J. Anderson, : “J.J. Wetherholt slipped to the seventh pick in last summer's draft after missing half his platform season at West Virginia because of a hamstring injury. He continues to look like a steal for the Cardinals. Wetherholt has aced his introduction to Double-A, posting one of the highest OPS in the lineup and leveraging his strong bat-to-ball and zone-control skills to walk more than he's struck out. The Cardinals have continued to play him exclusively at shortstop but, given Masyn Winn's continued employment in ӣƵ, I have to imagine that's mostly for optionality's sake. Depending on how the summer progresses, I think Wetherholt could debut late this year.”
Nathan Graham, Baseball Prospectus: “Besides Alec Burleson, who gets the occasional start at a corner, there hasn’t been much offense provided by the outfield in ӣƵ with Victor Scott, Lars Nootbaar, and Jordan Walker all struggling at the plate. Meanwhile, (Nathan) Church has made his way back from an unspecified injury to start the year and has been the hottest hitter in the organization. Known mostly as a speed and defense guy early in his career, the bat has broken out in the upper minors with Church turning into a contact merchant from the left side. If the Cardinals remain in contention late into the summer, they might just turn to Church to try and resurrect some Cardinals’ devil magic for their playoff run.”
Ken Rosenthal, : “The sense of urgency for the Chicago Cubs does not simply stem from the prospect of right fielder Kyle Tucker leaving after one year. The Cubs could lose five more important players to the open market after 2026, making an aggressive push at this year’s trade deadline all the more imperative. The potential members of the free-agent class of 2026-27 are left fielder Ian Happ, designated hitter Seiya Suzuki, second baseman Nico Hoerner, right-hander Jameson Taillon and left-hander Matt Boyd. That group, combined with Tucker, accounted for 37 percent of the team’s fWAR entering Tuesday. And while the Cubs might retain some of those players, they are unlikely to keep all of them, Tucker in particular. Their situation is not now or never, not with the emergence of center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong giving the 2026 roster a formidable look even if Tucker departs. But ownership’s reluctance to sign players long-term, coupled with the possibility of a work stoppage in 2027, adds to the perception of a shrinking window.”
Lauren Theisen, The Defector: “Part of the sting of the Mets' slump has come from the fact that they're losing to three of the most frustrating and annoying franchises on the schedule. They got swept by the Rays in three by a combined score of 24-9. They managed one win in Philly to break up 10-2 and 7-1 drubbings. And if you didn't know already, I bet you can guess the remaining tormentor: the Atlanta Braves. Down in Georgia, the Mets saw the devil in the form of a 10th-inning walk-off sac fly, a 5-0 shutout, and a 7-1 slaughter.”
Dan Syzmborski, FanGraphs: “Even though Baltimore’s chances of reaching the playoffs aren’t exactly zero, the odds are long enough that it’s hard to make the case for staying the course or trying to improve for this season. The 2024 Tigers, of course, made an improbable postseason run and then took out the Astros in the Wild Card Series, but it would be irresponsible to use that Detroit team as evidence to inspire a similar turnaround. At this time last year, the Tigers were only five games below .500, and at their worst, they were nine games under — only half as bad as the Orioles were at their lowest point this season. And even then, the Tigers didn’t act like they had a real shot at the playoffs. Before the deadline, they traded Jack Flaherty, Carson Kelly, Andrew Chafin and Mark Canha to contending clubs for prospects. If this were fundamentally the end of the line for this O’s core, I could see the argument for rolling the dice and trying to make one final push for the playoffs, even if banking on that outcome would be a wild gamble."
Megaphone
“It was one of those things where you wanted to try to calm yourself down as much as possible and stay off the Internet, I feel like everything that I swiped was like, me and Skenes, me and Skenes, me and Skenes. I had to turn it off, had to mute it. It was a good time to spend with the girlfriend.”
Brewers pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski, on preparing for his showdown with Paul Skenes.
