Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker (18) celebrates his a two-run home run off Phillies pitcher Carlos Hernandez with outfielder Mike Siani in the eighth inning of a game Sunday, April 13, 2025, at Busch Stadium.
Anyone who has spent any recent time in Row 25’s middle seat of a jetliner idling on the tarmac, trying to get a clear view of the window, has a feeling for the spot the Cardinals find themselves in at the All-Star break of their rebrand summer.
Every runway is only so long.
Eventually, you do have to take off.
Or taxi around ‘til turning back to refuel.
Since the 2024 season ended with a pivot toward development and upcoming years, the Cardinals have launched a variety of buzzwords: “reset” (abandoned), “transition” (adopted) and “runway” (widely accepted). The intended purpose of the season was to give homegrown players plenty of playing time, or “runway,” to determine where they fit in the Cardinals’ next era. Instead of the historically accurate metrics of wins, pennant and World Series appearances, one club official said this season would be a “failure” if they came out of it without a complete evaluation of their young players.
A funny thing happened on the way to the future.
The Cardinals started to contend.
“We’ve given ourselves a shot while still doing (the developing), right?” manager Oliver Marmol said. “I think we’ve threaded that as much as we can. I don’t think we’ll veer from it. The further we get into the season, it’s not just runway for the sake of runway.”
The Cardinals open the back stretch of the regular season with right-hander Andre Pallante starting Friday night in Arizona and No. 1 starter Sonny Gray set to go Saturday. At 51-46, the Cardinals spent the break at third place in the National League Central, 6 1/2 games out of the division lead but only 1 1/2 games out of an NL wild-card berth. They have a favorable schedule in the coming weeks that begins with their first games of the year west of Kansas City and nine of the next 13 against losing teams.
That 13 also coincides with how many games the Cardinals have before the July 31 trade deadline — and John Mozeliak, in his final trade deadline as president of baseball operations, is watching them for a direction. These 13 games could be the deadline weathervane, pointing the Cardinals toward buyer, seller or vacillating to a familiar house blend of both.
Will it be a gust of wins?
Or a drop in pressure?
“It could be so different with four or five guys who are out of here in a couple of weeks,” said closer Ryan Helsley, who could be one of those four or five guys due to his expiring contract. Fellow relievers Phil Maton and Steven Matz will also generate interest. Helsley has expressed a preference to stay and remain long term with the Cardinals.
“That depends on how we play and what the rest of the division is doing,” Helsley continued. “I feel like that’s the case every year. But this year what’s different — teams thought we were going to be a lot worse than we are. Teams show up here and it’s a dogfight against us from pitch No. 1.”
“I think it’s a group that is not afraid of anything,” said Brendan Donovan, the Cardinals’ lone All-Star, late Tuesday night after going 2 for 3 in the NL’s victory in Atlanta. “It’s people learning how to go about their business in the big leagues, kind of learning who they are. And I think that’s what makes us scary. ... Our expectations were completely different than the ones set on us.”
From above at cruising altitude, the Cardinals are decidedly slightly above average.
Their offense produces runs 3% better than league average with a .252 batting average that ranks 11th and a .393 slugging percentage that ranks 18th out of 30. Their pitching staff ERA ranks 20th in the majors at 4.13. It’s buoyed by the bullpen’s 3.81 ERA, which ranks 13th, and burdened a tad by a below-average rotation with a 4.34 ERA
The Cardinals are greater than the sum of their parts considering some of those parts are producing below their career expectations.
They rely on tight defense, solid late-inning relief, clever bullpen use, starter health and some fortunate timing. They rank fourth in the majors in comeback wins (24) and have the fourth-fewest blown-lead losses (18).
“You never see them beat themselves,” said Reds All-Star lefty Andrew Abbott.
The Cardinals advertised to the division that they weren’t going to make any significant offseason additions, and they did not.
“And it’s working,” Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong said.
Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn celebrates after hitting an RBI double, driving in Lars Nootbaar, during a game against the Pirates on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, at Busch Stadium.
Although, the Cardinals are defying trends in the game to still succeed. They are one of two winning teams who rank in the bottom 10 for strikeout rate. (They are 29th at 7.37 per nine innings, ahead of only lowly Colorado.) For comparison, eight of the top nine teams in strikeout rate have winning records. The Cardinals are one of four winning teams with fewer than 100 home runs so far this season, and they have the lowest isolated power (slugging minus batting average) of any winning team, at .129.
They are the only winning team in the bottom third for strikeout rate and home runs hit.
The Cardinals play the probabilities. They are a team that relies on balls put in play against them finding fielders and balls put in play by them finding gaps. Toss in the volatility of youth and prolonged offensive slumps that come with adjusting and adapting at the majors and that explains their nine-game winning streak and the recent rash of shutouts.
Marmol was recently asked by the Post-Dispatch if he sees those roller-coaster results smoothing out as a sign of improvement from the young players.
“I’d love to say yes, but the answer is not entirely,” Marmol said. “I think when you look at a veteran player, what they’ve learned to do is shorten the amount of time that they stink. They’re able to take a three-week period and turn it into 10 days. It’s shorter. And then you put a lot of veterans together and they do that in the win-loss column, too. It’s just how they play the game. It’s just shorter downturns or ruts in a season. When you’re young and you’re a player, those are longer. ... You put a lot of (developing players) together you’re actually going to have these longer ups and downs. That’s just part of it.
“As a staff, we have to constantly remind ourselves of that,” he continued. “Because you can’t get frustrated. That is part of this process.”
Marmol was asked what role wins play in that “process.”
“We can’t be fooled, just because we won we’re good or because we lost we weren’t,” he explained. “Sometimes we only think about the second one: We lost, but we weren’t good. Sometimes you win a game and you played like (crud). You missed a lot of opportunities and you just got lucky and you better learn from those as much as some of the losses.”
That is the point where the Cardinals’ season they planned and the opportunity they have in the standings connect: How important is winning to developing?
As the trade deadline nears, here are three Cardinals who personify the answer to that question, two of whom could see their place in the present and future of the club shaped in the coming weeks:
1. Jordan Walker, OF
Limited to 55 games by injury stints to go with his .210 average and .562 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), Walker’s time on a rehab assignment is running out with a decision imminent, coming possibly as soon as Friday. The Cardinals optioned Thomas Saggese on Thursday to clear room.
Walker went on the injured list this past month due to appendicitis.
The Cardinals assigned him to Class AA Springfield (Missouri) for his rehab so that he could work with coaches there on a swing adjustment. When he’s set to return to the majors, his playing time is uncertain, especially as Alec Burleson has hit his way into a starting job.
Walker was a prominent part of the Cardinals’ “runway” plan — to see if he would be the talent to take off. Now, at the deadline, teams expect to ask if he’s in play for trade talks or if the Cardinals will deal from overlaps at other positions.
2. Michael McGreevy, RHP
Cardinals officials agree that McGreevy is ready for the majors, and they’ve used his roster status to move the right-hander between Class AAA Memphis and the majors as a de facto sixth starter. The most obvious way to clear a spot in the rotation for McGreevy is to trade one of the current members, such as a pending free agent Erick Fedde.
Fedde has struggled in the past month, diminishing the return the Cardinals could get. But a move would give McGreevy the ever-popular “runway” to provide results now as he preps to be in next season’s rotation.
3. Mozeliak
In the closing months of his 18th season atop baseball operations, Mozeliak will be in a familiar place at the trade deadline: the spotlight. But he knows it will be for the last time with this team. He can attempt to play it like golf — down the middle — or choose a side. What he and the Cardinals elect to do will shape how the club is viewed at the end of his tenure and how it will start Chaim Bloom’s turn.
Mozeliak described the deadline decisions as “collaborative” with the incoming front office. And he recently wished for “tough decisions” at the deadline because it would mean balancing a winning team now and the goal of setting up the team for contending years yet to come. He cautioned against “blowing up a club” because it can take “years to recover.”
“Is there something the franchise can benefit from should we do (it)?” he said.
One answer that comes up around the organization: the benefit of winning.
After an offseason downplaying expectations for the club and trying to trade some veterans who refused to waive their no-trade clauses and preferred to stay, the Cardinals are one win better than last season at the same point. A decision to sell at the deadline could lead to a precipitous drop in the standings and dramatic change in the clubhouse — younger, yes, but without the airflow of winning to elevate the climate.
They risk the runway becoming a ground stop.
“That is why our staff is completely locked in making sure we keep (winning) that way because it’s better for the players,” Marmol said. “It is. It’s ideal. It’s what you’re hoping for. It’s better for the player to play meaningful baseball whether there is pressure from an evaluation standpoint or from an experience standpoint. When you can get them together, that is high-level development.”
